Could Heat Waves Be Forecast 3 Weeks Out? 

By: Richard A. Lovett and Nature Magazine

Scientists have been researching the topic of heat waves and are now questioning the United States' heat wave. (Lovett 1). They have discovered an atmospheric circulation pattern and this only shows that the heat wave itself of the United States is more likely to happen than usual. The pattern that the scientists discovered showed a dangerous occurrence of heat spells. In addition to this heat wave, it will occur in 2-3 weeks before expected. (Lovett 1). Research that scientists have looked at show that some of the factors that have connected to this heat wave include, tropical conditions, sea temperatures, and the Asian monsoon. The scientists have been using the heat model to help to see if they can predict these heat waves, because the waves only occur every couple of years. Climate scientists have been analyzing the climate models for more information and trace of these heat waves. (Lovett 1). “The analysis revealed that major- heat waves were four times more likely to develop after a strong wave number-5 system formed at mid-latitudes. Haiyan Teng, a climate scientist, says that his particular pattern can stagnate, leading to slow-moving-high-pressure zones that can produce prolonged heat” (Lovett 1). The pattern only increases the possibility of a heat wave to 6%. This percentage is not high enough to display and distribute warnings that are putting people at risk. Any day in the summer, there is a 1.5% chance that it is a heat wave. Overall, the percentage is not high enough but when living in urban areas, people can be more prepared and there are ways to help cool. (Lovett 1). 

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=could-heat-waves-be-forecast-3-weeks-out